U.S. Mortality Trends, Long-Term and 2020, and a Video Explainer
On the bigger picture
Yesterday, I had a Twitter conversation with Dale Hall, Managing Director of Research at the Society of Actuaries, and Magali Barbieri, Associate Director of the Human Mortality Database, under the hashtag #SOATalksMortality.
There was a total of 12 questions that we addressed. The list of questions are below, with a link to each Twitter thread:
In the early 1980s, the U.S. reached 2 million deaths. Tell us about the shifts & changes that have emerged from this number to approach 3 million deaths in 2020.
@HMDatabase can you tell us about your recent findings on mortality & mortality improvement?
In terms of socioeconomics, what type of differences are you seeing with mortality?
Looking to next year & beyond, what considerations do you have for mortality & mortality improvement?
Highlights from the Conversation: Long-Term Trends
Some items from the SOA & HMD conversation which you might find interesting:
Lots more than that, of course — check out the 12 questions above and follow!
Feel free to tweet me @meepbobeep or email me: email@example.com if you have any follow-up questions.
Recent Mortality Research
The Society of Actuaries has a long tradition of mortality and longevity research (as well as other areas relating to actuarial work).
Here is the page on the most recent U.S. mortality experience: US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2018 Experience
You might find this opioid death trend interesting:
Interesting that it doesn’t seem to differ much by county income group. That has been my own experience in the fairly high-income/high-wealth Westchester County, in which people from fairly wealthy families have been dying from drug overdoses.
Magali Barbieri, who was a participant in the #SOATalksMortality twitter chat, authored a report with the SOA: Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States - it comes with a spreadsheet you can manipulate yourself to see mortality patterns. Hmmm, I think that will be a future video.
COVID Tile Grid Map Explainer
In my last post, I made an animated gif:
Here is an explainer on how to use the underlying spreadsheet:
Things to Come?
Mortality issues are going to be persisting, even after vaccines are widespread.
As a result of the conversation yesterday, I learned about the Human Mortality Database’s Short-term mortality fluctuations shiny app. I’ve been trying it out, and it’s got multiple countries in it. I may be looking at that, as well as the U.S. demographic mortality differences files, in future blog posts and video explainers.
As for now: yes, we’re in the third wave of COVID cases and deaths, and it’s not just the U.S. I think this is really very weather-driven at this point: basically, when people are inside a lot (whether it’s too hot or too cold outside), in dry, climate-controlled rooms… that seems to be where COVID is spread.
Also, the flu season so far has been very quiet. That one should be interesting to watch as well. (No, I don’t think it’s because flu cases are being classified as COVID.)
Lots more material to be coming over the next several months!