Unrelated special request - could you run an analysis on Years of Life Lost comparing the excess accidental deaths to Covid deaths for 2020 and 2021? Back of the envelope I come out with YLL greater in the accidental deaths despite being 1/10th the number due to age difference.
Could you do it properly? Will gift a subscription :)
I don't like "years of life lost" as a metric, but I know what you're getting at. I do not like how the CDC has done period life expectancy attribution for COVID, because the presentation is absurd. So I need to think through what would be appropriate to talk about impact metrics for 2020 & 2021 by cause of death. The "accidental causes" are really two big causes that changed over the period, with one probably going to settle down (motor vehicle accident deaths) and the other (drug overdoses) not.
So yes, the MVA deaths & drug ODs affected younger people more... but that was fewer deaths than the older people. So again, I'll think about what appropriate measures would be.
So, while I don't like this as a metric, Walensky just annoyed the hell out of me today by lying about the number of pediatric COVID deaths (again): [read the thread]
I found how the WHO did it, and because I can use earlier WHO results as well as 2019 results, etc., I am just going to do this. BAH.
I may do this in multiple iterations as the WHO had a table from 2011. It will still actually work for what I was to do, as it uses a life expectancy projection far beyond what we've got now, and the point is just to do comparisons. But I may want to do a "more realistic" measure as well.
This does not answer your original question, but I needed to take the metric for a test drive to make sure it behaves the way I think it should over the pandemic at the highest level.
Unrelated special request - could you run an analysis on Years of Life Lost comparing the excess accidental deaths to Covid deaths for 2020 and 2021? Back of the envelope I come out with YLL greater in the accidental deaths despite being 1/10th the number due to age difference.
Could you do it properly? Will gift a subscription :)
Hmmm, I will think on this.
I don't like "years of life lost" as a metric, but I know what you're getting at. I do not like how the CDC has done period life expectancy attribution for COVID, because the presentation is absurd. So I need to think through what would be appropriate to talk about impact metrics for 2020 & 2021 by cause of death. The "accidental causes" are really two big causes that changed over the period, with one probably going to settle down (motor vehicle accident deaths) and the other (drug overdoses) not.
So yes, the MVA deaths & drug ODs affected younger people more... but that was fewer deaths than the older people. So again, I'll think about what appropriate measures would be.
So, while I don't like this as a metric, Walensky just annoyed the hell out of me today by lying about the number of pediatric COVID deaths (again): [read the thread]
https://twitter.com/KelleyKga/status/1623702942502060033
I found how the WHO did it, and because I can use earlier WHO results as well as 2019 results, etc., I am just going to do this. BAH.
I may do this in multiple iterations as the WHO had a table from 2011. It will still actually work for what I was to do, as it uses a life expectancy projection far beyond what we've got now, and the point is just to do comparisons. But I may want to do a "more realistic" measure as well.
https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/years-of-life-lost-an-exploration?sd=pf
This does not answer your original question, but I needed to take the metric for a test drive to make sure it behaves the way I think it should over the pandemic at the highest level.
(It does)
I will get to your question.