You may want to look for a paper from George Washington University on the positive impact of air conditioning on the lifespans of Congressional members. Read it years ago. Also, the major difference between the old and newer Hill office buildings is how the old ones were built befote a/c. I worked in the Longworth House Office Building, and its ground floor windows are huge. Perhaps things were better before a/c: members had an incentive to wrap up their work and get out of DC before the summer heat hit.
DC is a literal swamp, not a merely figurative one.
As per my papal mortality post(s) where two popes croaked in short order due to malaria... similarly, people forget that in the U.S. malaria had been a serious problem... and cholera. I should do a few historical mortality items.
When I was on the Hill (Senate side), I was asked to give some constituents a Capitol tour. This was unusual. Interns normally did this as they have to take a seminar about the Capitol. I knew a lot about the Capitol from years of taking various relatives around the building (ah, the days when the Capitol was really accessible to the people). On this tour, I took the constituents to Statuary Hall (statues from 50 states). I asked them to choose the one representing the person who had had the greatest impact on America. They shrugged, puzzled. I pointed to the one of Dr John Gorrie of Apalachicola FL. "He's the man who invented air conditioning," I said. They got it. Gorrie was trying to lower the temperature of his malaria patients, and came up with a system that would blow cool air into the infirmary.
Lastly, the famous Walter Reed military hospital near DC was named for the Army doctor who also worked on malaria cases.
I would maintain that the deaths of sitting US members of congress have shown an outlying pattern since COVID started.
A fairly obvious note to any actuary: people who are working tend to have lower mortality than the general population of people the same age. Why: people who are working tend - mind you I said tend - not to have end stage cancer or other diseases that are about to kill them. They also tend not to be seriously disabled, which is a risk factor for death.
Members of congress are notorious for staying in congress for months or even years after they are not capable of doing much besides getting to the floor to place a vote. Still, it's not fair to expect that a 79 year old sitting member of congress would have the same chance of death as any random 79 year old.
It shows that 19 members of congress (both senate and house) died in office from 2000 to 2009. Exclude Paul Wellston, who died in a plane crash, since that would have nothing to do with health, but not Paul Gillmor, since falls down the stairs generally have everything to do with health.
Revised count: 18 deaths, 7 Rs and 11 Ds
From 2010 to 2019 - 12 deaths, with the only accidental one being from a "fall". Again, I won't exclude this, since most falls have a lot to do with the health of the person.
12 Deaths, 4 Rs, 8Ds
From 2020 through May 26, 2025
14 deaths, with one traffic accident (Jackie Walorski) to be excluded. Only ONE of these was from COVID, and yes he was a Republican.
Going back a little further, there were 16 deaths-in-office in the 1990s, with two of those being pure accidents, so 14 health related deaths.
In the 80s, there were 29 deaths, but there was one suicide, 2 plane crash deaths and one member died in the incident where the Soviets shot down an airliner. So, 25 health related deaths. If you look at little closer, though, you will see that a whopping 11 of those deaths were men dying of heart attacks. This data isn't really comparable because more men had heart disease and the diagnosis and treatments were less sophisticated in the 80s.
If you adjust that for a full ten years it would be 23.6 deaths
So to recap:
1980s - 25 deaths - 11 heart attacks
1990s - 16 deaths
2000s - 18 deaths, average age 68.4
2010s - 12 deaths, average age 76.9
2020s - adjusted for a full decade - 23.6 deaths, average age 73.9.
I'll admit, this isn't the gazillion sigma event we have when looking at group life insured mortality - it's more like a 1.5 or 2 sigma event. The numbers are small enough that it COULD conceivably be due to chance. Just barely.
they are older than most working folks, and there is another bias: so many of them hang onto office once they get incumbency, no matter how bad their health gets.
It would be one thing to say something, if it were a newcomer with cancer, but most of these folks dropping dead are lifetime politicians who have nothing else going for them. They are going to hide their health conditions, no matter what (as per Biden and crew), to hang onto office and power.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that a member of congress has the same mortality as a person in the general population.
I looked up on wikipedia a list of the members of congress and tallied their ages by groups of 5. I then assumed each age group was subject to the 2019 male mortality as shown on the Social Security website.
I failed to appreciate in advance how old this group is.
For the house, going up in age starting at age group 25-29, the groups have 1, 5, 28, 44, 49, 53, 65, 61, 41, 44 (plus 1 decedent), 26 (plus 2 decedents),11, and 4 members. Going by groups of 5, the average age is 57. 5, and the largest age group is 55-59.
For the senate, going up in age starting age group 35-39, the groups have 2, 2, 7, 12, 10, 15, 17, 21, 8 , 5 and 1 member. Going by groups of 5, the average age is 63.75 and the largest age group is 70-75.
Applying 2019 SSA male mort (87 yo mort is 0.117838, for reference), I got:
6.44 expected deaths in one year for the house, and
2.06 expected deaths in one year for the senate.
Clearly Congress hasn't been experiencing 8 deaths per year over the years, or anything like it. Over the last 4 or 5 decades, it's been more like 1 or 2 deaths per year.
Nancy Pelosi, Diane Feinstein, Mitch McConnell, and the lady that disappeared for several months, and was discovered to have been moved to an assisted living facility are likely high profile exceptions. If you look at a list of members of congress, you probably won't know more than 10 members of the house of representatives other than your local rep and a few neighboring reps. With the senate, there are maybe 15 high profile senators, but even so, most of them are relatively anonymous. The anonymous ones are likely to retire and go back home when they get sick.
You may want to look for a paper from George Washington University on the positive impact of air conditioning on the lifespans of Congressional members. Read it years ago. Also, the major difference between the old and newer Hill office buildings is how the old ones were built befote a/c. I worked in the Longworth House Office Building, and its ground floor windows are huge. Perhaps things were better before a/c: members had an incentive to wrap up their work and get out of DC before the summer heat hit.
I can totally believe that
DC is a literal swamp, not a merely figurative one.
As per my papal mortality post(s) where two popes croaked in short order due to malaria... similarly, people forget that in the U.S. malaria had been a serious problem... and cholera. I should do a few historical mortality items.
When I was on the Hill (Senate side), I was asked to give some constituents a Capitol tour. This was unusual. Interns normally did this as they have to take a seminar about the Capitol. I knew a lot about the Capitol from years of taking various relatives around the building (ah, the days when the Capitol was really accessible to the people). On this tour, I took the constituents to Statuary Hall (statues from 50 states). I asked them to choose the one representing the person who had had the greatest impact on America. They shrugged, puzzled. I pointed to the one of Dr John Gorrie of Apalachicola FL. "He's the man who invented air conditioning," I said. They got it. Gorrie was trying to lower the temperature of his malaria patients, and came up with a system that would blow cool air into the infirmary.
Lastly, the famous Walter Reed military hospital near DC was named for the Army doctor who also worked on malaria cases.
I would maintain that the deaths of sitting US members of congress have shown an outlying pattern since COVID started.
A fairly obvious note to any actuary: people who are working tend to have lower mortality than the general population of people the same age. Why: people who are working tend - mind you I said tend - not to have end stage cancer or other diseases that are about to kill them. They also tend not to be seriously disabled, which is a risk factor for death.
Members of congress are notorious for staying in congress for months or even years after they are not capable of doing much besides getting to the floor to place a vote. Still, it's not fair to expect that a 79 year old sitting member of congress would have the same chance of death as any random 79 year old.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(2000–present)
It shows that 19 members of congress (both senate and house) died in office from 2000 to 2009. Exclude Paul Wellston, who died in a plane crash, since that would have nothing to do with health, but not Paul Gillmor, since falls down the stairs generally have everything to do with health.
Revised count: 18 deaths, 7 Rs and 11 Ds
From 2010 to 2019 - 12 deaths, with the only accidental one being from a "fall". Again, I won't exclude this, since most falls have a lot to do with the health of the person.
12 Deaths, 4 Rs, 8Ds
From 2020 through May 26, 2025
14 deaths, with one traffic accident (Jackie Walorski) to be excluded. Only ONE of these was from COVID, and yes he was a Republican.
So we count 13 deaths, with 3 Rs and 10 Ds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congress_members_who_died_in_office_(1950–1999)
Going back a little further, there were 16 deaths-in-office in the 1990s, with two of those being pure accidents, so 14 health related deaths.
In the 80s, there were 29 deaths, but there was one suicide, 2 plane crash deaths and one member died in the incident where the Soviets shot down an airliner. So, 25 health related deaths. If you look at little closer, though, you will see that a whopping 11 of those deaths were men dying of heart attacks. This data isn't really comparable because more men had heart disease and the diagnosis and treatments were less sophisticated in the 80s.
If you adjust that for a full ten years it would be 23.6 deaths
So to recap:
1980s - 25 deaths - 11 heart attacks
1990s - 16 deaths
2000s - 18 deaths, average age 68.4
2010s - 12 deaths, average age 76.9
2020s - adjusted for a full decade - 23.6 deaths, average age 73.9.
I'll admit, this isn't the gazillion sigma event we have when looking at group life insured mortality - it's more like a 1.5 or 2 sigma event. The numbers are small enough that it COULD conceivably be due to chance. Just barely.
I will push back:
these folks are OLD
they are older than most working folks, and there is another bias: so many of them hang onto office once they get incumbency, no matter how bad their health gets.
It would be one thing to say something, if it were a newcomer with cancer, but most of these folks dropping dead are lifetime politicians who have nothing else going for them. They are going to hide their health conditions, no matter what (as per Biden and crew), to hang onto office and power.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that a member of congress has the same mortality as a person in the general population.
I looked up on wikipedia a list of the members of congress and tallied their ages by groups of 5. I then assumed each age group was subject to the 2019 male mortality as shown on the Social Security website.
I failed to appreciate in advance how old this group is.
For the house, going up in age starting at age group 25-29, the groups have 1, 5, 28, 44, 49, 53, 65, 61, 41, 44 (plus 1 decedent), 26 (plus 2 decedents),11, and 4 members. Going by groups of 5, the average age is 57. 5, and the largest age group is 55-59.
For the senate, going up in age starting age group 35-39, the groups have 2, 2, 7, 12, 10, 15, 17, 21, 8 , 5 and 1 member. Going by groups of 5, the average age is 63.75 and the largest age group is 70-75.
Applying 2019 SSA male mort (87 yo mort is 0.117838, for reference), I got:
6.44 expected deaths in one year for the house, and
2.06 expected deaths in one year for the senate.
Clearly Congress hasn't been experiencing 8 deaths per year over the years, or anything like it. Over the last 4 or 5 decades, it's been more like 1 or 2 deaths per year.
Nancy Pelosi, Diane Feinstein, Mitch McConnell, and the lady that disappeared for several months, and was discovered to have been moved to an assisted living facility are likely high profile exceptions. If you look at a list of members of congress, you probably won't know more than 10 members of the house of representatives other than your local rep and a few neighboring reps. With the senate, there are maybe 15 high profile senators, but even so, most of them are relatively anonymous. The anonymous ones are likely to retire and go back home when they get sick.