I am so sorry for the loss of Stu. It is hard to loose your best friend. I think of you often at this time. Please reach out if there is anything I can do. This was an interesting read and the photos were precious to view. I love you and miss you. Maybe one day soon we will see each other.
It's hard to tease out trends. In the older ages, so many extra people died in the COVID and COVID "vax" years that there's a significant pull forward effect. I would guess that some people that otherwise might be dying of cancer are turning to illegal painkillers since it's hard to get legal ones. These people could then show up as accidental drug overdoses.
I've done several dives into the mortality in my substack, looking at individual causes of death for a few selected age groups.
I've gotten to the point where I just figure it's time to throw in my lot with RFK Jr and the MAHA movement - for the next month anyway.
Re: cancer, one can at least look at cancer types.
But I've taken to looking more closely at younger age deaths -- most of the "pullforward", if there is any, would seem to be at the oldest ages (age 85+, or even age 75+).
Through 2020-2021, while Stuart didn't miss any of his treatments/appointments, we did notice some of the older patients did have trouble, and it wasn't just due to COVID restrictions. Some of them were dependent on others for transportation, and they had trouble getting rides. Some patients were scared of getting COVID, and were loathe to go to in-person appointments. Stu did not like telemedicine and advocated for in-person meetings as much as possible. Often, he was the only person at the cancer center. But then, he was 20 years younger than many of the men with the same initial diagnosis.
I can look to the multiple causes of death data sets later (obviously easier to look at UCD, where there is 1 and only 1 cause per death), to try to follow substitution effects for 2020-2022, but with 2023 data, it looks like COVID is falling down to low levels for UCD. The effects on cancer mortality specifically will likely be a blip there (unlike other causes, where we're seeing huge effects). The 2021 "blip" in the graph above is completely spurious, fwiw, as explained before.
I am so sorry for your loss. May the Lord give you the grace to carry on in these hard times.
I am so sorry for the loss of Stu. It is hard to loose your best friend. I think of you often at this time. Please reach out if there is anything I can do. This was an interesting read and the photos were precious to view. I love you and miss you. Maybe one day soon we will see each other.
It's hard to tease out trends. In the older ages, so many extra people died in the COVID and COVID "vax" years that there's a significant pull forward effect. I would guess that some people that otherwise might be dying of cancer are turning to illegal painkillers since it's hard to get legal ones. These people could then show up as accidental drug overdoses.
I've done several dives into the mortality in my substack, looking at individual causes of death for a few selected age groups.
I've gotten to the point where I just figure it's time to throw in my lot with RFK Jr and the MAHA movement - for the next month anyway.
Re: cancer, one can at least look at cancer types.
But I've taken to looking more closely at younger age deaths -- most of the "pullforward", if there is any, would seem to be at the oldest ages (age 85+, or even age 75+).
Through 2020-2021, while Stuart didn't miss any of his treatments/appointments, we did notice some of the older patients did have trouble, and it wasn't just due to COVID restrictions. Some of them were dependent on others for transportation, and they had trouble getting rides. Some patients were scared of getting COVID, and were loathe to go to in-person appointments. Stu did not like telemedicine and advocated for in-person meetings as much as possible. Often, he was the only person at the cancer center. But then, he was 20 years younger than many of the men with the same initial diagnosis.
I can look to the multiple causes of death data sets later (obviously easier to look at UCD, where there is 1 and only 1 cause per death), to try to follow substitution effects for 2020-2022, but with 2023 data, it looks like COVID is falling down to low levels for UCD. The effects on cancer mortality specifically will likely be a blip there (unlike other causes, where we're seeing huge effects). The 2021 "blip" in the graph above is completely spurious, fwiw, as explained before.