Notable Cancer Deaths: Cancer is the Top Cause of Death in Middle Age
An update to the 2023 top causes of death by age group, plus more Stu
To transition more into the usual material of this substack, there is an obvious connection between my husband Stuart’s death on September 30, 2024 and my long-time interest (and expertise) on mortality trends.
But first, a little video montage that Apple put together for me… (and yes, one is a pic of me with a mud mask on… I often had to trick Stu into me taking pics of him. I would pretend to be taking selfies and grab a pic of Stu. He preferred to be behind the camera.)
Almost all of these pictures are of him after having been diagnosed and treated for cancer. The opening picture is from last month, September 2024, from a parish festival.
Stu had been diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in August 2017. We knew from the time of diagnosis that it wasn’t curable and that the survival statistics weren’t good. You can see through the progression of pictures how much he aged in the 7 years since diagnosis, from 55 years old to 62.
Some other people, notable to the wider world, died from cancer on the same date as Stuart did. All of them had a much shorter period from diagnosis to death.
Dikembe Mutombo
WSJ: Dikembe Mutombo, NBA Star Known for His Height and Heart, Dies at 58
In the 1990s, one of the most intimidating sights in professional basketball was a single raised index finger, wagging back and forth.
If you saw it, it meant only one thing: Dikembe Mutombo had just raised his massive hand and blocked your shot, sending it right back where it came from.
On the court, Mutombo, who died of brain cancer on Monday [September 30, 2024] at the age of 58, was a titan in an era of basketball lorded over by giants, winning four Defensive Player of the Year awards while going up against the likes of Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal. Off the court, Mutombo, who was raised in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (then known as Zaire), was renowned for his humanitarian and charitable work. His career was a kind of 20th-century blueprint for what the sport would become in the 21st: an expanding global game in which people from every corner of the world can participate and excel.
“That guy was the biggest giant that you could ever find,” said Masai Ujiri, the Toronto Raptors president who was raised in Nigeria and who visited a hospital Mutombo helped build in the Congolese capital where he was born. “The biggest heart.”
He had started being treated for a brain tumor in October 2022.
Gavin Creel
Playbill: Tony-Winning Actor Gavin Creel Passes Away at 48
Tony winner Gavin Creel, known for performances in Thoroughly Modern Millie, Hair, The Book of Mormon and many more, passed away September 30 after a battle with cancer. He was 48. The news was confirmed by his partner, Alex Temple Ward.
Mr. Creel was diagnosed with a rare and aggressive form of sarcoma in July 2024, and underwent treatment at Memorial Sloan Kettering before transitioning to home hospice care.
Mr. Creel was a fixture of the theatrical community, noted for versatile acting performances in a career that saw him often alternate between comedy and drama, leading man and character actor. But performing was only one facet of Mr. Creel's life. Blessed with a virtuosic voice in every sense of that word, Mr. Creel also used his gifts as a skilled writer to be a devoted activist for the theatre community.
Gavin Creel about Broadway:
Gavin Creel singing “She Used to Be Mine” from Waitress:
Playbill: Select Broadway Marquees Will Dim for Gavin Creel
Fayo
Popculture: Acclaimed Singer-Songwriter Dies of Cancer: Fayo Was 46
Singer-songwriter Mario LeBlanc – better known by the stage name Fayo – passed away on Monday at the age of 46. According to his obituary, LeBlanc died at his home in Mont-Carmel, Quebec in Canada surrounded by his loving family. Fans were devastated to hear of LeBlanc's sudden illness.
LeBlanc was born in Dieppe, New Brunswick and was considered one of the leading voices for the Acadian people – a term for a French-speaking ethnic group in eastern Canada. His songs were primarily in the local French dialect known as chiac, which consists of a unique mixture of French and English words and grammar. He blended the genres of folk, rock and urban poetry to cultivate a unique voice, yet he connected with fans all over the world.
According to a report by Acadienouvelle, LeBlanc suffered through a brief battle with cancer before he passed away. A family friend told reporters that only those very close to him knew that he was ill, and he continued working as long as he could. LeBlanc reportedly continued to work as a janitor in the area in addition to his musical career.
Cancer is the top cause of death in middle age in the U.S.
Updating my rankings for cause of death by age group, you can see that cancer is the top cause of death for ages 45 to 84, which is a very broad definition of middle age:
Before moving on to the death rates, for the specific age groups where cancer is the top cause of death, it is 20% - 30% of the deaths for that age group.
Cancer Death Rates
Let’s switch to rates now, so we can compare against the pre-pandemic year of 2019.
Death rates for natural causes of death tend to increase with increasing age. However, different causes increase at different rates, thus the different ranking for different age groups.
Let’s look at what we have for 2019 rankings.
I don’t have the same full colorings (this is from a 2022 post), but you can see that cancer was the top cause of death for ages 45-84 in 2019 as well.
What is interesting is that heart disease, the second-ranked cause of death for that age range in 2019, dropped to third place for ages 45-54 for 2023 behind accidents (primarily because drug overdoses are grouped in with accidents). As well, for the age group 75 - 84, heart disease is creeping up on cancer.
The increase in heart disease deaths may be related to the pandemic… and then again, it may be related to a longer-term trend of lifestyle-related conditions, such as with diabetes.
Cancer: We Can Improve the Odds, but Our Control is Still Limited
I am trying a few new things, due to Stuart’s influence. It is easy to slip into obscenity where cancer is concerned, but let me not take the easy way.
The improvement in cancer survival rates has generally been slow and steady.
(Yes, that bump in 2021 is spurious. I’m not fixing WONDER’s issues for the CDC. They will eventually get around to fixing their population estimates in the system. The 2022 numbers look okay, and 2023 are provisional.)
For specific kinds of cancer, the trends are a bit more mixed:
Those are crude rates, not age-adjusted rates. All sorts of things are going on within colon, prostate, and pancreatic cancer. And, in particular, a trend in early-onset cancers has been observed worldwide.
While there are lifestyle factors related to cancer incidence (especially with smoking), and screening can catch major cancers (breast, prostate, colon, skin) early, many others we still have limited control over. That’s true whether it’s limited ability to screen, no genetic markers, few treatment options, and on and on.
Mind you, I’m a “life” actuary, which means I’m often death-focused. It is an extension of my simplicity as a physics major in undergrad — I liked modeling single atoms. I like dealing with data where I have to deal with only one event. It’s just a matter of when.
But the progress of cancer is complex. I saw it in Stu’s journey over seven years. There were multiple setbacks and he powered through. This is not a choice for everybody, because it involves much pain. It is not pleasant, but the methods of taking pain away can also mean you’re more likely to die.
Carpe Diem means more than one thing
Stu was Catholic, and I am Catholic, and we believe that Every Day is a Gift.
That book of daily prayers was the first book I ever ordered from Amazon, way back in 1998, for my grandma (screenshot for proof):
I think it’s hilarious that you can see I bought 10 copies of this book for my Grandma’s church group back in 1998, and that Amazon is trying to sell it to me again.
This is all to say:
Memento Mori.
And
I am so sorry for your loss. May the Lord give you the grace to carry on in these hard times.
I am so sorry for the loss of Stu. It is hard to loose your best friend. I think of you often at this time. Please reach out if there is anything I can do. This was an interesting read and the photos were precious to view. I love you and miss you. Maybe one day soon we will see each other.