A graphic is making the rounds this week -- Chicago pension expenditures are now ~23% of all city spending, the largest line item in the budget. I'll see if I can find that, and the source.
Chicago spent a long time under-paying the pensions, and just to tread water they've had to greatly increase contributions. And it's STILL under-contributing!
I lived in Chicago from '90-95, grad school at Northwestern, and also managed/renovated some property. I keep distant tabs on what is happening there.
I cannot understand or imagine who lives there now, what they do, economically, or what has happened in the last 30 years to my neighbors in Rogers Park. It sounds like a video-game hellhole. yes, because I read the news from police blogs, but larger, what the heck industry or productive work is actually there to make the primary Economy?
Commodities? Transportation. That's it. medical/University money, but I think that pot will soon be shrinking fast.
I. Don't Know.
ETA -- I grew up in "Downstate" Illinois, near St. Louis. Chicago was a foreign country even back then. The divorce from any reality of the state of Illinois seems complete, but this is a destructive and punishing legal process that will bankrupt all parties if we let it.
Chicago should be sawed off, pushed into Lake Michigan and set on fire. Let it burn.
Looking forward to your 2025 musings! Some random related thoughts/suggestions:
1) How bad are the ASOP 4 disclosures? Why don’t the think tanks like PPD start collecting and reporting those numbers (though I know of one that might)?
2) On alternative asset investments, how much are public plan investments overstated because of all the non-traded alternatives that haven’t been properly marked to market (my bet for PE values is 20%)?
3) the good news with church plans is that by dint of their ERISA exemptions, they’re allowed to use, and some actually do, non-insured tontine-like longevity pooling.
I forgot about ASOP 4. (My ma gave me an illness when I visited home, so my list was not comprehensive, shall we say.) That is definitely something we should be seeing... and I haven't seen anything (yet).
The alts are going to be interesting as some funds go into needing liquidation. Then we get price discovery. ;)
The church pensions, unfortunately, are difficult to get the info for. I might be able to find something for the Catholic dioceses that have gone through bankruptcy, but I might not. There are often separate pension funds for the priests and for the lay workers of the diocese. The priests usually have a DB-like benefit, and the secular workers have been shifting towards 401(k)s, it looks like. I might be able to find something out via the fraternals, but maybe not. I don't think the churches generally use the religious fraternals to build retirement benefits.
The asop 4 disclosures for 2023 are in the funding reports (not ACFRs) and are out there. I’ve only looked at a few. The video for the TX teachers meeting where it was presented was basically “nothing to see here” and some disclosures followed the “toolkit.” CalPERS was decent but didn’t go far enough. The downplaying by the profession has been successful, so far, in violation of Precept 1 of the code of conduct, Asop 1 requiring good faith compliance with ASOPs and likely other things. Totally shameful.
I'd be interested in a better view of H1b. In my experience, these are used by young, recent college (or grad school) graduates, not by those with experience. Average salaries of engineers at a company which hires a lot of contract employees is going to be heavily weighted with supervisors, managers and VPs - more experienced and more highly paid than those recently in university. A comparison to H1b applicants may not be apples to oranges, but more like high school vs college grads.
I grabbed all the actuarial-related H1Bs some years ago (but that could be sensitive... as that's a very small group of people compared to the whole tech sector. We likely know who these people are.)
H1bs are used differently in different industries. The H1Bs I personally saw for actuarial were definitely not for entry-level, but for fully-qualified actuaries from non-US countries. Application lists I see for actuarial H1Bs have only a few at wages we would recognize as entry-level.
I don't have any particular insight into the H1B situation that hasn't been covered by others who are more knowledgeable of the complete process, as it currently exists. Specific companies have taken advantage of the current process to game the lottery, and hire out their H1Bs at lower-than-prevailing wages. But it's in very specific industries.
There is no person/writer I currently trust more to explain economic questions than you, MEEP. I have asked before if you would be willing to take on public service;- of course, I realized, you have.
[heart emoji that I will not look up the Unicode for]
A graphic is making the rounds this week -- Chicago pension expenditures are now ~23% of all city spending, the largest line item in the budget. I'll see if I can find that, and the source.
I wouldn't be the least surprised.
Chicago spent a long time under-paying the pensions, and just to tread water they've had to greatly increase contributions. And it's STILL under-contributing!
I lived in Chicago from '90-95, grad school at Northwestern, and also managed/renovated some property. I keep distant tabs on what is happening there.
I cannot understand or imagine who lives there now, what they do, economically, or what has happened in the last 30 years to my neighbors in Rogers Park. It sounds like a video-game hellhole. yes, because I read the news from police blogs, but larger, what the heck industry or productive work is actually there to make the primary Economy?
Commodities? Transportation. That's it. medical/University money, but I think that pot will soon be shrinking fast.
I. Don't Know.
ETA -- I grew up in "Downstate" Illinois, near St. Louis. Chicago was a foreign country even back then. The divorce from any reality of the state of Illinois seems complete, but this is a destructive and punishing legal process that will bankrupt all parties if we let it.
Chicago should be sawed off, pushed into Lake Michigan and set on fire. Let it burn.
Looking forward to your 2025 musings! Some random related thoughts/suggestions:
1) How bad are the ASOP 4 disclosures? Why don’t the think tanks like PPD start collecting and reporting those numbers (though I know of one that might)?
2) On alternative asset investments, how much are public plan investments overstated because of all the non-traded alternatives that haven’t been properly marked to market (my bet for PE values is 20%)?
3) the good news with church plans is that by dint of their ERISA exemptions, they’re allowed to use, and some actually do, non-insured tontine-like longevity pooling.
Here’s hoping for a good 2025!
I forgot about ASOP 4. (My ma gave me an illness when I visited home, so my list was not comprehensive, shall we say.) That is definitely something we should be seeing... and I haven't seen anything (yet).
The alts are going to be interesting as some funds go into needing liquidation. Then we get price discovery. ;)
The church pensions, unfortunately, are difficult to get the info for. I might be able to find something for the Catholic dioceses that have gone through bankruptcy, but I might not. There are often separate pension funds for the priests and for the lay workers of the diocese. The priests usually have a DB-like benefit, and the secular workers have been shifting towards 401(k)s, it looks like. I might be able to find something out via the fraternals, but maybe not. I don't think the churches generally use the religious fraternals to build retirement benefits.
The asop 4 disclosures for 2023 are in the funding reports (not ACFRs) and are out there. I’ve only looked at a few. The video for the TX teachers meeting where it was presented was basically “nothing to see here” and some disclosures followed the “toolkit.” CalPERS was decent but didn’t go far enough. The downplaying by the profession has been successful, so far, in violation of Precept 1 of the code of conduct, Asop 1 requiring good faith compliance with ASOPs and likely other things. Totally shameful.
Okay I’ll collect a few. Good to know where to look for it — I was pension light last year, but o can step up now
I'd be interested in a better view of H1b. In my experience, these are used by young, recent college (or grad school) graduates, not by those with experience. Average salaries of engineers at a company which hires a lot of contract employees is going to be heavily weighted with supervisors, managers and VPs - more experienced and more highly paid than those recently in university. A comparison to H1b applicants may not be apples to oranges, but more like high school vs college grads.
It's not just engineers, of course.
I grabbed all the actuarial-related H1Bs some years ago (but that could be sensitive... as that's a very small group of people compared to the whole tech sector. We likely know who these people are.)
H1bs are used differently in different industries. The H1Bs I personally saw for actuarial were definitely not for entry-level, but for fully-qualified actuaries from non-US countries. Application lists I see for actuarial H1Bs have only a few at wages we would recognize as entry-level.
I don't have any particular insight into the H1B situation that hasn't been covered by others who are more knowledgeable of the complete process, as it currently exists. Specific companies have taken advantage of the current process to game the lottery, and hire out their H1Bs at lower-than-prevailing wages. But it's in very specific industries.
There is no person/writer I currently trust more to explain economic questions than you, MEEP. I have asked before if you would be willing to take on public service;- of course, I realized, you have.
[heart emoji that I will not look up the Unicode for]