Papal Election Stats: An Aggregation
Some demographics (and betting)
Before I begin, something a little more appropriate from The Pillar:
Could the nervous energy of 1.4 billion people be better directed? The Pillar asked Bishop Erik Varden, the Norwegian Trappist monk, author, and beer aficionado, for tips on praying — and staying calm — during a papal interregnum.
….
Is it OK to pray that our favorite candidate becomes pope, or is that like praying that your sports team wins the cup?
The thing is: here it is not a matter of anyone winning. Do we think of the weight that will be placed on the future pope’s shoulders from the moment of his acceptance? Do we consider the account he will one day have to render to the Judge of all?
If you read Dante, or consider any number of medieval paintings of the Last Judgment, you will see no shortage of mitered heads in the nether realms. This is something I, as a bishop, consider with trembling. The stakes are vast.
It’s free to read, so I recommend to my fellow Catholics: read the whole thing.
Ya wanna bet?
There ends my being appropriate.
Polymarket has all sorts of betting markets on the Papal election, just as any other election:
Evidently, being in the U.S., I can view these only… which is fine by me. I wasn’t about to bet on who the new Pope was. (Is this an excommunicable offense? Do I need to go to confession?)
Of the betting markets, the main question of note to me is this one:
If you can’t see it, it’s whether the new pope will be over 70 years old. As I grabbed the market, it was betting at a 58% chance.
That seems somewhat low to me, and let’s see why.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first elected pope after Pope Francis is 70 years of age or older on the day of his election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ah, if it has to be resolved by May 19, 2025, I can see a problem. There may not be a new pope resolved on by then.
No, sorry, I checked — that is the estimated end date. Never mind. I go back to my original comment.
Cardinal electors: Demographics
Here is the thorough coverage, again from the Pillar:
This is by Brendan Hodge, and he’s got the numbers on the 133 cardinals expected to show up to vote on the next pope.
135 cardinals are eligible, but two said they are too ill to participate, Vinko Puljić and Antonio Cañizares Llovera, from Croatia and Spain.
I am taking one of his visualizations and highlighting the percentage of cardinal electors who had been born in Italy:
Hodge notes that the average age of the voting cardinals is a little over 70 years themselves — and they’re capped at 80 years old. To be sure, they’re not necessarily going to pick among their oldest, but they may shy away from their youngest members as well.
Looking at how the average age changed over time is interesting, but let us take a snapshot right now of the distribution of ages.
His source is here: Cardinal Electors (I did a quick check to see if (ex-?)Cardinal Becciu was on the list… for an explanation of what’s going on there, read this explainer from Ed Condon: The cardinals’ ‘Becciu Test’)
Histogram of Cardinal Electors’ Ages
Here is a histogram of the ages, excluding the two cardinals who are too ill:
Whoa, that’s a little biased. Especially since they are likely picking the next pope amongst themselves.
In case you wanted to know: 56% of the cardinal electors are over 70 years old.
Here is a more detailed graph:
You can see here more clearly how biased by age the electorate is. If you think the U.S. Senate is biased by age, you ain’t seen nothing yet, baybee.
Other cardinals are not among the cardinal electors, mostly because they’re too old, but…
(And if you think today’s papal election may be a bit contentious, boy, do I have some great stories for the next papal conclave post…)
Reading the Tea Leaves
I am not going to try to predict who the next pope will be.
As a faithful Catholic, I will focus on the following things:
Praying for the repose of the soul of Pope Francis (and Pope Benedict, for that matter.) For those presuming that Francis (or Benedict) are enjoying hanging out with the BVM and the rest of the heavenly crew, as opposed to needing our prayers in Purgatory… that’s not necessarily being charitable. And, if they are, and we’re praying for them, they can use our prayers for those still in Purgatory. So, ya know.
Pray for those in Purgatory.
That’s the first part.
Praying for the help of the Holy Spirit in the workings of the conclave.
What I’m hoping for, because this is a problem, is somebody who can clean up the curia, and get the Vatican finances on a more sound footing.
The Cardinal Electors may have Vatican finances on the top of their minds, as many of them have been directly affected by changes Francis had made.
It’s not merely the lay employees in Vatican City that were affected by recent announcements by Pope Francis that perhaps they wouldn’t get their promised pensions, but the cardinals and other clergy posted in the Vatican that had their perks cut.
Unfortunately, many (or most) of these clerics are not terribly good when it comes to handling money or being good shepherds when it comes to being alert to those who would be apt to steal or defraud the Church. So….
In the meantime, pray.
Isn’t ‘past performance is not indicative of future results’??🤪🤪