Mortality Nuggets: LBJ and Smoking, Lightning Deaths up to 7, Sharks!, and Drowning

Personal note: please donate blood

I have a personal note at the end of this post.

An actuarial spin to LBJ’s 1968 drop-out

Of course, Lyndon Baines Johnson first came to the U.S. Presidency when JFK was shot in 1963. After which, LBJ was elected on his own behalf in 1964.

When it came to 1968, LBJ dropped out of the race on March 31, after the New Hampshire primary in which he got only 12% of the primary vote.

So that was the primary driver, correct?

But maybe there were some other considerations:

The above article is from July 1973 (before I was born!) by Leo Janos.

(Thanks to one of my friends for bringing it to my attention)

“The Last Days of the President” by Leo Janos - more excerpts:

In March, 1970, Johnson was hospitalized at Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, after complaining of severe chest pains. Doctors reassured him that he had not suffered a heart attack; instead, the pains were caused by angina, a hardening of the arteries to the heart resulting in an insufficiency of blood to the body's most vital organ. Although there was little that could be done to cure the condition, Johnson was urged to lose considerable weight. He had grown dangerously heavier since leaving the White House, gaining more than twenty-five pounds and weighing around 235. The following summer, again gripped by chest pains, he embarked on a crash water diet, shedding about fifteen pounds in less than a month. But shortly before Christmas, 1971, he shocked his friends by suddenly resuming cigarette smoking, a habit he had discarded over fifteen years before, following his first, near fatal, heart attack. "I'm an old man, so what's the difference?" he explained. "I've been to the Mayo Clinic twice and the doctors tell me there is nothing they can do for me. My body is just aging in its own way. That's it. And I always loved cigarettes, missed them every day since I quit. Anyway, I don't want to linger the way Eisenhower did. When I go, I want to go fast." He quickly became a chain smoker.

I want you to think about the age at which LBJ had his first heart attack: 46 years old. [quoting Wikipedia]

On July 2, 1955, at age 46, Johnson, a 60-cigarette-per-day smoker, suffered a near-fatal heart attack, which inspired him to discontinue smoking.

That is a three-pack-a-day smoker (if I recall correctly, my dad was a 2-pack-a-day smoker). THAT IS A LOT OF CIGARETTES.

He had another heart attack in 1972, which he survived, but it left him in poor condition. [back to The Atlantic]

Miraculously he survived, but the remaining seven months of his life became a sad and pain-wracked ordeal. "I'm hurting real bad," he confided to friends. The chest pains hit him nearly every afternoon—a series of sharp, jolting pains that left him scared and breathless. A portable oxygen tank stood next to his bed, and Johnson periodically interrupted what he was doing to lie down and don the mask to gulp air. He continued to smoke heavily, and, although placed on a low-calorie, low-cholesterol diet, kept to it only in fits and starts.

He finally died in January 1973, a few weeks after being interviewed by Walter Cronkite:

During the final months of his life he was suffering terrible pain. One of his last public appearances, his dramatic speech at the Civil Rights Symposium at the LBJ Library, proved to be so exhausting that he spent the next two days in bed. He filmed a final interview with Cronkite, taking long rests between camera loadings.

The interview was on January 12, 1973 and his death on January 22: [now quoting Wikipedia]

Johnson recorded an hour-long television interview with newsman Walter Cronkite at his ranch on January 12, 1973, in which he discussed his legacy, particularly about the civil rights movement. He was still smoking heavily, and told Cronkite that it was better for his heart "to smoke than to be nervous."

Well, he was wrong about that, but given the state of medicine at that time, the amount of damage he had already done with smoking probably was too difficult to undo. As noted in the sources, he had been looked at by the famous cardiovascular surgeon Dr. DeBakey who noted he needed a coronary bypass on two arteries, but that LBJ would probably not survive the surgery due to his general state of health.

It’s all very well to say “The men in the Johnson family have a history of dying young”, but if you’re a chain smoker putting away 60 cigs/day, yeah, I think there’s no mystery as to where that history originates.

Here is a CDC visualization:

That big blue curve of heart disease deaths, peaking around 1960, and the slower rising curve of cancer deaths, peaking around 1990, have been greatly driven by the history of smoking.

I will likely return to this issue of smoking, as another person I know shared this piece from 2023:

Tobacco Nation: A Call to Eliminate Geographic Smoking Disparities in the U.S.

Smoking prevalence is nearly 50% higher in a group of Midwestern and Southern states compared to the rest of the country, according to Truth Initiative’s latest analysis of U.S. states with the highest smoking prevalence. In 12 states – a region we call “Tobacco Nation” that spans Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia – both adults (19.2% vs. 13%) and young adults (11.2% vs. 7.6%) have 50% higher smoking prevalence and smoke many more cigarettes per capita annually than people living in other states (on average, 53 vs. 29 packs). That means a smoker living in Tobacco Nation could smoke nearly 500 more cigarettes per year than the average smoker in the rest of the U.S.

I grew up in the “Tobacco Nation” of decades ago, but evidently, Georgia and the Carolinas are no longer in Tobacco Nation. As a child in those states, I was surrounded by smokers.

There is a reason smoking declined in the states of my youth, and not the states mentioned above. More on that another time.

Lightning deaths for the year increase to 7

Via the National Lightning Safety Council:

Tragic: Lightning strike kills man in Lee County

Lee County Coroner Daniel Sexton has confirmed a Columbus, Georgia man, Winfred Shipman Jr., 67, tragically passed away after being struck by lightning while at the flea market near Smiths Station over the weekend.

This heartbreaking incident serves as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by lightning, especially during summer when outdoor activities are at their peak. 

Luckily, John Jensenius and the National Lightning Safety Council was able to provide tips to prevent lightning strike deaths:

1. Seek Shelter Immediately: At the first sign of a thunderstorm, head indoors. Fully enclosed buildings with wiring and plumbing provide the best protection.

2. Avoid Open Areas: If you’re caught outside with no shelter, avoid open fields and elevated areas. Crouch down with your feet together and minimize your contact with the ground.

3. Stay Away from Tall Objects: Trees, poles, and other tall structures can attract lightning. Keep your distance to reduce the risk.

4. Avoid Water: Water is an excellent conductor of electricity. Stay out of pools, lakes, and other bodies of water during a storm.

5. Stay Inside Your Car: If you’re unable to find a building, a hard-topped vehicle can offer some protection. Keep windows closed and avoid touching metal parts of the car.

6. Wait for the All-Clear: Lightning can strike up to 30 minutes after the storm seems to have passed. Wait at least half an hour after the last clap of thunder before resuming outdoor activities.

When thunder roars, stay indoors!

SHARK WEEK

Okay, it’s not Shark Week on Discovery Channel, but Jaws was playing on some channel at the hospital when Stu & I was there this week (more in personal note below). And then Jaws II, and then Jaws III (I didn’t ask him if they said anything about the 3-d version). Maybe it was the Sci-fi channel and they said it was their shark week.

There are so few fatal shark attacks in the U.S., they keep a table of them on Wikipedia, with only one for 2024 so far, and two for 2023. Many years have no fatal shark attacks at all.

Maui, Hawaii and surfers figure significantly in the statistics.

Given how CDC WONDER works, the ICD code for shark attacks is: W56.4: contact with a shark.

Let’s see what I can find in the 1999-2020 finalized data. Because of censorship of any aggregation of fewer than 10 deaths, I need several years in order to get what I want.

Alas, this is the best I can do in detail in WONDER:

There are more detailed data sets out there, but they are large, and I’m not downloading them right now.

Drowning - please be safe

This is just my midsummer reminder about drowning.

Drowning is a seasonal cause of death, in that most drowning deaths occur in the summer:

Here are a few posts on drowning:

A Time to Remember: Drowning Doesn't Look Like Drowning and When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

May 2022: Summer Season Warning: Drowning Doesn’t Look Like Drowning (Plus Drowning Mortality Trends)

Apr 2023: Danger! Fire, Hurricanes, Drowning, and More

May 2023: Walking Around Cemeteries (about drowning deaths)

June 2023: Drowning Deaths: U.S. Geographic Differences 1999-2022 (provisional)

July 2023: Drowning Deaths: Sex and Race/Ethnicity, U.S., 1999-2022 (provisional)

Personal note: please donate blood

Above, I tossed in that Stu (my husband and the Stu part of STUMP - I’m the MP part) and I were at the hospital recently.

I’m writing this as Stu is still at the hospital, receiving a transfusion.

I’m not going to get into the gory details, but long-time readers will know that Stu has incurable metastatic prostate cancer, diagnosed in 2017. But incurable does not mean untreatable. He has been treated since his diagnosis via multiple protocols, first infusion chemotherapy, then daily medication (that is still ongoing), hormone shots, and more.

The issue is, of course, that sometimes things go awry.

Anyway, cancer patients are often in need of transfusions (and they’re not the only ones).

I’ve been a frequent donor to the New York Blood Center, for over 20 years.

The first few donations the NYBC has from me - I’m at 46 total donations

My blood type is AB+, so in the past, I’ve donated plasma and platelets, as those are a bit more valuable from my blood type. That said, the blood centers separate whole blood donations into their parts for use. The main benefit of the single-part donations is that one can donate more frequently than with whole blood.

In the summertime, blood centers often need more donations, but are low on supplies as donors are on vacation. Please consider donating. It can save a Stu. ;)

Pic of Me, Stu & Chase from 2003

Thanks!