Midweek Quickies: Interest Rates, Sumo, and Podcast Plugs
Around the World in No Minutes
If you had told me I’d be spending 2022 linking interest rates and sumo, I’d think you were nuts.
But holy moly, both interest rates and sumo are nuts right now.
Turn that frown upside down
Thanks, Mish for the alert:
Two-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since 2007, Everything Inverted Over 1 Year
The curve from 1 year through 7 years is inverted with the long end of the curve.
The curve has been inverted in places for over a year. This is a recession signal and I believe the economy went into recession in May.
The Fed is merrily hiking away and is likely to keep doing so until it breaks something big time. The Fed will hike 75 basis points tomorrow and the market thinks another 75 basis points is coming in November.
If so, it is doubtful the markets will like it much.
Mish has his own graph, but I prefer mine.
I think I may make this a regular feature at Actuarial News. Especially if the rates are going to be this nutty.
Crazy Go Nuts Basho
How about that sumo tournament, huh?
I’ve not been giving updates, but let’s just say that my kids have been complaining about how loud I’ve been yelling over matches such as this one:
Or this one:
From the denizens of the SumoMemes subreddit:
We had a good time.
Podcast Recs
Two podcasts to recommend for my readers.
First, for those interested in public finance: the Public Money Pod with Justin Marlowe and Liz Farmer — there are now three episodes out.
The Public Money Pod page is here: https://voices.uchicago.edu/munifinance/cmf-podcast/ — I was able to subscribe to it at Apple podcasts, and should be able to find it on other services, too. They don’t have the Sept 19 episode listed on the page, but it popped up for me this morning — it’s on public employment numbers!
For my fellow working numbers nerds, if you missed my plug for The Maverick Actuary (Dominic Lee) on Monday because you don’t listen to my podcast, that’s okay.
I do recommend the Maverick Actuary podcast for quantitative professionals, especially those earlier on in their career — or even mid-level and more seasoned vets — as it has all sorts of good advice on being more effective in reaching beyond our safe, technical niches:
I highly recommend The Maverick Actuary’s Podcast which can be found on his website: https://www.maverickactuary.com/podcast
It’s also on major podcast services:
Spotify:
Apple Podcasts:
Hakkeyoi!