2 Comments

Fantastic analysis as always. Great charts, and thanks for the shareable XLS file.

Tea Leaves indeed indicate 2022 on track to be as bad as 2021 for accidents, though I haven't run age groups. Total accidental deaths noted as of June 2nd update was at 82,563 (for extremely provisional 20 week data), at the 20 week collection mark last year it was 81,938. In 2020 it was 76,761.

I haven't compared to provisional Wonder, just running against the CDC "Weekly Provisional Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2020-2022".

Any chance we can petition wonder to add direct SQL querying??? :)

Expand full comment

Well, I've wished for that myself. There are groups of people who have direct access (or can get it), but they tend to have to have special permission, tend to have academic connections. I don't.

As it is, I'm thinking a lot of the accidental death uptick is more from drug ODs than from the motor vehicle accidents. A good cross-check is to go to the NHTSA site and look at their reports. They do their data separate from the CDC: https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/

As they're somewhat independent, I can check if the CDC stats and NHTSA stats are in accord with each other on motor vehicle deaths, and NHTSA gives me a lot more detail about crash deaths in terms of cause, but also types of vehicles involved, location (type of road), etc.

Expand full comment