The World Cup is wrapping up, and I CANNOT escape the betting ads:
Oh, but they do not use the terminology “betting”.
The video ads on YouTube use the terminology of “predictions” and “questions”.
On my phone, when I’m playing games, I get this:
And I don’t want to hear any complaints, “Oh, but you showed their ads!”
Look, if you’re reading my substack, you’re no neophyte.
I didn’t show DraftKings and some of the other sports betting ads - they actually call the activity betting.
I find Kalshi and Polymarket, specifically, offensive.
It’s the words: “Trade” and “Predict”.
Also: “Ask questions”.
DraftKings essentially do the same thing as Kalshi and Polymarket, when it comes to sports.
When it comes to the World Cup matches — these are all sports bets. The people getting involved in them, when it comes to payoffs and their mental/emotional reactions, it’s all betting.
So let’s get into some of the commentary.
Op-ed: Teens Getting Addicted to Gambling
27 Jun 2026, NYT, Jessica Grose: We’re Getting America’s Children Hooked on Gambling
Shawn Kelly is a pediatrician in Ottawa who specializes in adolescent addiction medicine. Because he’s one of the few doing this work in his part of Canada, teenagers come to him with a host of problem behaviors, from opioid abuse to compulsive video gaming. A few years ago, patients started coming to him with gambling issues. Sometimes these issues were comorbidities with drug addiction. But now, he’s seeing gambling in his general pediatrics practice, too, and among younger teens without other issues.
A parent will say at the end of a pediatric well visit, “Are you going to tell Dr. Kelly what you did?” And it turns out the tween surreptitiously took his dad’s credit card and blew over a thousand Canadian dollars in one weekend on sports betting and online casinos. As these incidents became more common in his practice, Kelly (the consummate Canadian) also noticed that betting terminology had been fully integrated into the ice hockey highlights he was watching with his young son. His 7-year-old was asking him what “over-under” meant.
….
Even though we are surrounded by enticements to gamble, and despite the growing evidence that there has been an increase in addictive gambling behavior since sports gambling became broadly legal in the United States in 2018, there is a dearth of research about diagnosis and treatment compared with that for other addictions. In a 2024 investigation published in JAMA Internal Medicine, academics described the paucity of data, writing that “gambling is often overlooked in health research, clinical practice and health policy development, with insufficient governmental efforts to prevent or mitigate harms.” An estimated two-thirds of 18- to 22-year-old men surveyed by the N.C.A.A. in 2023 had bet on sports, and 16 percent of men and women had engaged in at least one risky gambling behavior.
Kelly told me that the lack of actionable, evidence-based guidance on how to treat youth gambling keeps him up at night, because multiple studies have found a link between suicide, suicidal ideation and gambling disorder. “We need to be doing something and evaluating efficacy so that we are in a position to actually deal with this problem, rather than waiting for the wave of young male suicides,” Kelly told me. (While young men are more likely to gamble than young women, women may progress to problem gambling faster than men do.)
Yes, yes, the “won’t anybody think about the kids” meme.
For me, it’s problem gambling for people of any age.
I did a podcast episode on this back in March:
Problem Gambling: Addicts, Lotteries, Sports, and Pensions
March is Problem Gambling Awareness Month (were you aware?) — and many people are becoming aware of an increasing problem with all sorts of gambling and betting being available 24/7, in easy reach, on our phones.
As I noted then, the legalization of sports betting has caused scandals within many (professional and amateur) sports, as some of the athletes themselves have been caught getting in on the action… which has always been a problem, whether the betting was legal or illegal.
But let us go to some of the research re: suicide and problem gambling being linked.
Suicide and Gambling
Lancet Regional Health: Europe
Volume 48 101127 January 2025
Abstract: [emphasis added]
Background
Gambling disorder has been consistently linked to suicidal ideation and suicide attempts, but few studies have investigated the association between gambling disorder and suicide mortality. This study examined the risk of suicide mortality associated with gambling disorder compared to the general population and other patient groups.
Methods
A registry-based cohort study was conducted employing individual-level linked and aggregated data from Norwegian nationwide health registries. The study population comprised all patients with gambling disorder in Norway (n = 6899) for the period 2008 to 2021. Standardized mortality ratios were estimated to assess suicide risk among gambling disorder patients against the adult Norwegian general population. Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios comparing suicide risk among patients with gambling disorder to 12 comparison groups comprising patients treated for other conditions (n = 391,897).
Findings
Suicide was the leading cause of death among patients with gambling disorder (37 of 148 deaths; 25%). Patients with gambling disorder had a higher suicide risk than the general population (standardized mortality ratio = 5.12, 95% CI [3.71; 7.06]), and 5 of 12 patient groups with other conditions. Suicide risk was not significantly different when compared to that of patients with anxiety disorders, personality disorders, or depression. However, suicide risk was lower among patients with gambling disorder than patients with substance use disorders, alcohol dependence, psychotic disorders, or mood disorders.
Interpretation
Norwegian patients with gambling disorder have an elevated risk of suicide mortality but the risk is similar to or lower than other patient groups known to be at increased suicide risk.
They adjusted for age & sex in comparisons, and I think what was useful is showing that suicide death rates were about the same as patients with certain conditions and lower than patients with other conditions. It gives one an idea of level of severity.
Frontiers in Psychiatry
Front. Psychiatry, 25 October 2022
Sec. Addictive Disorders
Volume 13 - 2022 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.980303
Gambling-related suicides and suicidality: A systematic review of qualitative evidence
Abstract: [emphasis added]
The relationship between gambling and suicides or suicidality has received much research attention in recent years. Review studies have already mapped the quantitative occurrence of suicide attempts, suicides, and self-harm among gamblers, and found a positive association. Related comorbidities and conditions have also been charted in previous reviews. However, there is still a gap in knowledge regarding the actual processes that connect gambling and suicidal behavior. To understand these processes, the current paper conducts a systematic review of qualitative evidence on gambling-related suicides and suicidality. The aim was to identify the role of gambling as well as of confounding factors in suicidality, and what kind of support suicidal individuals have received or would need. We searched for relevant literature in seven scientific databases. We included all studies that presented empirical qualitative evidence on gambling-related suicide, suicidality and/or self-harm (N = 20). The results show two main processes that connect gambling and suicidal behavior: indebtedness and shame. At the same time, suicide is a multifactorial phenomenon, and related to other confounding factors. These include psychiatric conditions, personality traits, and life conditions. In many cases, these appear to emerge as a consequence of gambling. Treatment for suicidality has been effective in some cases, but indebtedness and shame may also function as barriers to help-seeking. We conclude that effective prevention is needed by adapting a more comprehensive public health approach and population-level interventions.
This paper focuses on a systematic review of prior research (the N=20 is 20 prior studies being reviewed), and is looking more for effective intervention than whether suicide rates are higher/lower than other conditions.
The studies included were from multiple countries, and many were case studies of individuals and interventions attempted.
What to Do?
First, this is as with alcohol: to a certain extent, the cat is out of the bag. We’re not going to go back to Prohibition, but alcohol is highly regulated.
There are regulators for Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, etc.
Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated as futures markets (thus the “trading” language), regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You can take a look at the CFTC press release page to see press releases involving Kalshi and Polymarket go by every so often, in which the federal CFTC battles various states for regulatory control.
Here is an example: 12 June 2026: CFTC Sues New Mexico as the State Becomes the Latest Attempting to Infringe on Federal Jurisdiction
WASHINGTON — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today filed a lawsuit in federal court against the state of New Mexico, seeking to block the state’s efforts to apply state gaming laws against CFTC-registered contract markets.
Just last week, New Mexico filed a lawsuit in a state court against CFTC-registrant KalshiEX LLC, alleging that its prediction market offerings amount to unlawful online sports betting while attempting to “evade state gaming laws.” The state’s complaint seeks injunctive relief to halt Kalshi’s operations within its borders and to prevent Kalshi from further offering sports-related event contracts.
I am with New Mexico, but for now, Kalshi and Polymarket have been winning with CFTC, arguing they’re “trading” on all their propositions… that these are futures contracts. I am displeased, but I am not a regulatory lawyer, and this is where things stand currently.
DraftKings and similar sports betting apps are regulated by gaming boards in the various states/provinces where this activity has been made legal and regulated. In each of these locations, they have resources on problem gambling set up and I notice that DraftKings has this page:
10 PRINCIPLES TO HELP YOU PLAY RESPONSIBLY
If you choose to place wagers, do so for entertainment purposes. If your
gaming is no longer an enjoyable activity, it’s time to ask yourself why you’re
still playing.Treat the money you lose as the cost of your entertainment. Treat any winnings as a bonus.
Only place wagers with your own money.
Set a realistic budget that you can afford. Always play within your means.
Set a time and dollar limit and stick to it.
Be cautious when placing large wagers in the hopes of winning big.
Don’t try to recover money by chasing your losses.
Gaming shouldn’t be viewed as a pathway to financial gains or a shortcut to
financial success.Avoid gaming if you are in recovery from any dependency or are under the
influence of alcohol or other substances.If you feel your gaming may be out of control, it’s important to seek help.
Help is available in most states and can be found at the National Council on
Problem Gambling.
Casinos and sports betting apps (that explicitly call themselves sports betting apps) lobbied hard to be made legal. They do not want to lose their legal status because of those who are gambling addicts… just like the restaurant and bar and alcohol industry (and entertainment and…) do not want alcohol made illegal again.
I think all the betting companies know, though, that telling people “don’t chase your losses” and “DEAR LORD PEOPLE DON’T TRY THE MARTINGALE BETTING ‘SYSTEM’”, especially to problem gamblers, is not going to stop them.
There are resources and checklists, like this one from Connecticut:
Problem Gambling Severity Index
Their scoring scale:
Score of 0: Non-problem gambling.
Score of 1 or 2: Low level of problems with few or no identified negative consequences.
Score of 3 to 7: Moderate level of problems leading to some negative consequences.
Score of 8 or more: Problem gambling with negative consequences and a possible loss of control.
This is similar to problem drinking checklists.
The issue with teens is the access via apps.
2 Mar 2026, Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling: Shining the Light on Teen Problem Gambling Risks for World Teen Mental Wellness Day
March 2nd is World Teen Mental Wellness Day—a timely reminder that, as Problem Gambling Awareness Month kicks off, one of the most under-recognized threats to teen well-being is hiding in plain sight.
Every March 2nd, communities around the world observe World Teen Mental Wellness Day to open conversations, reduce stigma, and connect young people with resources to support their health and well-being. This year, the date falls at the very start of Problem Gambling Awareness Month (PGAM)—and that timing matters. As gambling becomes more accessible than ever in Florida, teens and young adults are facing gambling-related risks that most adults aren’t even aware of. The Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling (FCCG) is using this moment to shine the light on a growing public health concern: problem gambling among Florida’s youth. [1]
….
Florida’s Legalization of Sports Betting: A Youth Crisis Accelerating
Since the legalization of sports betting in Florida on December 7, 2023, the FCCG has observed a dramatic surge in help contacts—particularly among young people. Calls to the 888-ADMIT-IT HelpLine doubled in mid-December 2023, shortly after the launch of Hard Rock Bet, with young men making up a large share of those contacts. Post-legalization data shows that 43% of online sports bettors experiencing problems in Florida are 25 and under, and more than half (51%) of sports bettors seeking help started gambling at or before the age of 20. Overall, FCCG data shows that online gambling help contacts have increased 426% since 2019–2020.
When you look at their most recent report, FCCG Activities Report, through December 2025, they’re pretty comprehensive in sharing all their online activity.
Here’s one table [on page 55]:
Though, this may be a function of successful promotion of their website more than need of their activity.
Don’t ask me why they added up over the columns. Because they could, I suppose.
That said, there are these organizations, whether governmental or public-private partnerships between the gaming companies and the states, that are supposed to help problem gamblers.
And teens are supposed to be shut out of the legal gambling apps and venues… but are they?
Don’t Expect Gambling and Gaming to Be Made Illegal Again… It’s Too Lucrative… For the States
And sports betting is big business:
26 Feb 2026: US Sports Betting in 2025 Reaches Record Highs, Driven by New York and Illinois
Almost all states with some form of legalized sports betting published revenue and handle reports for every month of 2025. Based on those reports, 2025 was the strongest year on record for sports betting in the US, measured by handle, revenue, and taxes paid.
More than $165 billion was wagered online or at retail sportsbooks across 35 US states, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 11%. Sportsbooks generated $16 billion in revenue, up 24% compared to 2024, while tax contributions reached $11 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase.
….
Tax Revenue and State-Level Impact
Of the total sportsbook revenue, approximately $3.7 billion was paid in taxes, with nearly half going to New York and Illinois. New York generated the most tax revenue from sports betting, driven not only by its high handle but also by its 51% tax rate, the highest in the US.
Similar tax rates exist in some smaller states, though those typically operate under exclusive sportsbook contracts or state-run betting models.
New York sportsbooks contributed $1.3 billion to the state budget in 2025, accounting for 36% of all sports betting taxes collected nationwide. Illinois sportsbooks paid $480 million, or 13% of the national total.
Unlike New York, Illinois does not apply a flat tax rate. Instead, sportsbooks are taxed on a sliding scale ranging from 20% to 40%, along with a new per-wager tax introduced in 2025.
Yeah, I don’t see the states giving this up.
Cutting children off from betting, sure… but the adults who are giving them all this sweet, sweet tax revenue? No.
Part of the reason the states are fighting the CFTC over Kalshi and Polymarket is that they want to tax them the way they tax the gaming companies.
-sigh-
In any case, for all the World Cup enjoyers out there, I hope it goes well for all y’all [I’m enjoying the July Grand Sumo Tournament greatly so far…NO BETTING!], and we really need to get this sports betting problem under control so that those of us who want to enjoy sports can do that… and so that fewer lives are ruined.
As you said, “out of the bag”! Don’t get me started on legalized marijuana!!