Politicians: Don't Tempt the Reaper
You will not live forever
If you haven’t heard yet, Senator Dianne Feinstein died:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a trailblazer in U.S. politics and the longest-serving woman in the Senate, dies at age 90
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., a vocal advocate of gun control measures who was known for trying to find common ground with Republicans during her three decades in the Senate, has died, her office confirmed on [THIS WAS BLANK WHEN I GRABBED IT]
She was 90.
“Senator Feinstein never backed away from a fight for what was just and right. At the same time, she was always willing to work with anyone, even those she disagreed with, if it meant bettering the lives of Californians or the betterment of our nation," her chief of staff James Sauls said in a statement.
Chief of Staff James Sauls, was it worth it? Was it worth not letting your decrepit boss retire? He didn’t become her chief of staff until April 2023, and she was decrepit well before that. I’m not going to bother to see who was chief of staff before that.
Not a surprise
Back in September 2020, I had written:
I was flabbergasted to find out Senator Dianne Feinstein is 87 years old [doesn’t look too bad for her age, actually]
She must have been doing okay-ish then.
Starting with Sen Feinstein — for the Social Security life tables, an 88-year-old female has a mortality rate of about 10% for a full year.
Yes, that’s a high mortality rate.
For most ages, before one hits the “really old” level, the reason we quote death rates in the per 100,000 level instead of percentages is because we have to push those percentages out too many digits.
That’s not true once you get old.
Men exceed annual mortality rates of 1% at about age 60. They exceed 10% at age 86.
Women exceed annual mortality rates of 1% at age 66. They exceed 10% at age 88.
Sen. Feinstein is 88. Should she die, nobody is expecting her to get replaced by a Republican, whether she’s replaced via appointment by the governor or by special election. But it might take some delay.
That had to do with a Supreme Court nomination (that worked out for Biden but there was some concern something would happen before he managed to make the nomination), but as you can see, I’m hardly surprised that a really old person died.
Death (eventually) comes for us all.
You don’t get to choose
In February of this year, Feinstein (or her staffers) announced she would not be running for re-election in 2024.
As I noted at the time, it’s not like she would necessarily have a choice, and it turns out, she didn’t.
I’m here to talk about the real requirement to serve in the Senate.
That is: being alive.
This is the table I put together in February:
My motivation in putting that table together:
So the reason I developed this in the first place was I found it a bit presumptuous to assume Feinstein would be around to fulfill the requirements to be a senator in two years.
Turned out I was correct about presuming.
Pushing their luck
If you would like a “fun” probability problem, using the numbers above (I will not get into anything with lots of decimal points), now that Feinstein is gone, the probability that the rest of them will survive is:
(1-28%)*(1-13%)*(1-12%)*(1-10%)^2*(1-9%)^3*(1-8%) = 31%
So, less than a third.
Do you like those odds, senators?
To be sure, their health/mortality rates should be better than the general U.S. population, but in advanced age, it really is getting to be like a crap shoot.
(And yes, they survived from February to now, but if I want to be really mean, I can estimate the survival probability to the end of their senate terms, which is not necessarily 2 years. Grassley just won re-election in 2022. His term is up in 2028.)
Know when to walk away… while you can still walk
Mitt Romney was probably wise when he decided not to seek re-election in 2024:
Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee and an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump, will not run for re-election next year, he said in a video statement Wednesday.
"I have spent my last 25 years in public service of one kind or another. At the end of another term, I’d be in my mid-80s. Frankly, it’s time for a new generation of leaders. They’re the ones that need to make the decisions that will shape the world they will be living in," Romney said.
Mitt Romney, born in 1947, is currently 76 years old. He’s among the oldest of the Baby Boomers — who would be age 77 at the oldest right now.
You need to realize that most of the guys above are older than Baby Boomers.
Forget about letting Gen X or Millennials be in leadership positions, how about letting the (younger) Boomers in?
Do you hear that Pelosi?
More Political Mortality
A short selection of political-related mortality posts:
April 2023: Is Joe Biden Likely to Die Within 5-6 Years?
April 2022: All Men Must Die, But They Don't Have to Die in Office
September 2020: On increasing life expectancy and the Supreme Court
May 2023: A Sampling of Political Mortality
In Jamaica there is a saying: "Time is longer than rope". Condolences to Sen. Dianne Feinstein's family as we pass this way only once.