You don't seem to buy into any "conspiracy theories", no matter how strong the evidence is. Do you still think the possibility of COVID 19 leaking from a lab is a conspiracy theory?
Some people claim the COVID vaccine studies never looked into whether the vaccine would stop transmission, despite everyone from the President on down telling us if we took the vaccine COVID would "stop with you". Was that skepticism a conspiracy theory?
Do you still think the US border was secure from 2021 to 2024, and any other belief was a conspiracy theory?
How about the idea of US troops being injured by exposure agent orange? Is that a conspiracy theory? How about the theory that the US government was spraying a toxic chemical around housing projects in St. Louis in 50s and 60s? Is that still a conspiracy theory? How about the Gulf of Tonkin? Is the idea that that wasn't a real attack a conspiracy theory?
First, sudden middle aged deaths (of natural causes) used to be quite unusual. Up until 2021, even a serious heart attack was unlikely to kill someone outright. People rarely died from first heart attacks, and had a pretty good idea that their heart health was declining if it was declining.
Second, A good percentage of the people that die in any given year are in very poor health at the beginning of the year (and/or are also in their 70s, 80s or 90s) as so are unlikely to be trying to run for office.
I'm not going to bother trying to track down numbers on this - you WILL NOT be convinced. "It's difficult to convince a person to believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it."
Looking forward to the news next week. A nice vaxxed-unvaxxed study is going to drop. I've been at this game long enough (21 years!) I'm kind of expecting the results to be underwhelming, but this time the good guys have the actual data in the data mines.
But, rather than having to argue this each time (and other claims you're making remind me I need to update my mortality slides & videos) -- I will compile my political mortality posts into a single one.
Comparing the following time points: 1) my first time in Germany to visit in 1976, 2) the time I got a job here 1996-2015, and 3) what I am seeing now, the German population is experiencing, obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases that they never experienced before. I took a review course for medical emergencies that included CPR and afterwards told my wife that the conditions of most of the course leaders (from one of the ambulance/first aid services were so bad that I would not have been surprised if one or more of them experienced an acute emergency during the Course. I am now seeing, thanks to Merkel's import of economic foreigners from certain middle east, India, and African countries, teenagers from those ethnic backgrounds who are already grossly overweight (obese).
It's not a matter of "if politicians in bad health run for office" or not. You're an actuary. You've got the FSA credential, I've only got the ASA credential.
You should know the question is more like: "How likely is a politician in poor health to run for office, vs a politician in good health"? Obviously "poor health" is hard to define, but just as obviously the answer, in percentage terms, is somewhere between zero and one. And for people who have illnesses that make it likely they will die in the next year, I suspect the percentage is below 20%.
People like Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, Diane Feinstein, Mitch McConnell and such are high powered politicians and not representative of politicians in general. They have a lot to gain from being in office and have staff to do the real work for them.
Might AfD have a difficult time finding candidates in good condition given its public image? (No idea) — do their candidates skew older or more male? More likely to be smokers? Again, no clue.
In addition, I pulled from a country-wide mortality table, but I know the different parts of Germany differ quite a bit, esp the ex-East German portion, which tends to have worse mortality.
All that said, I’m still not finding the current situation of a few dead candidates all that alarming… yet.
Let me know if we start hearing of defenestrations.
Since the fall of the Wall in '89, 36 years have passed. So, anyone who was a working adult then might be of retirement age. What was their smoking habits, alcohol consumption, and seed oil consumption (DDR produced a lot of it)?
"worked on a problem like this for my 40th birthday" - SUCH a stereotypical actuary activity! This goes so well with your posts on the ages of US Senators and Legislators.
Thanks for engaging your passion! Another important parameter not discussed is whether they took the mRNA (injurious, deadly) injection pushed by the then ruling Gov't, Big Pharma, and the medical establishment.
You don't seem to buy into any "conspiracy theories", no matter how strong the evidence is. Do you still think the possibility of COVID 19 leaking from a lab is a conspiracy theory?
Some people claim the COVID vaccine studies never looked into whether the vaccine would stop transmission, despite everyone from the President on down telling us if we took the vaccine COVID would "stop with you". Was that skepticism a conspiracy theory?
Do you still think the US border was secure from 2021 to 2024, and any other belief was a conspiracy theory?
How about the idea of US troops being injured by exposure agent orange? Is that a conspiracy theory? How about the theory that the US government was spraying a toxic chemical around housing projects in St. Louis in 50s and 60s? Is that still a conspiracy theory? How about the Gulf of Tonkin? Is the idea that that wasn't a real attack a conspiracy theory?
First, sudden middle aged deaths (of natural causes) used to be quite unusual. Up until 2021, even a serious heart attack was unlikely to kill someone outright. People rarely died from first heart attacks, and had a pretty good idea that their heart health was declining if it was declining.
Second, A good percentage of the people that die in any given year are in very poor health at the beginning of the year (and/or are also in their 70s, 80s or 90s) as so are unlikely to be trying to run for office.
I'm not going to bother trying to track down numbers on this - you WILL NOT be convinced. "It's difficult to convince a person to believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it."
Looking forward to the news next week. A nice vaxxed-unvaxxed study is going to drop. I've been at this game long enough (21 years!) I'm kind of expecting the results to be underwhelming, but this time the good guys have the actual data in the data mines.
Someone else on Twitter also made that claim: politicians in poor health don't run for office!
I assure you, they do. And they hang onto office long after they should. That's been a long-standing theme for my political mortality posts:
https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/politicians-dont-tempt-the-reaper
But, rather than having to argue this each time (and other claims you're making remind me I need to update my mortality slides & videos) -- I will compile my political mortality posts into a single one.
Comparing the following time points: 1) my first time in Germany to visit in 1976, 2) the time I got a job here 1996-2015, and 3) what I am seeing now, the German population is experiencing, obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases that they never experienced before. I took a review course for medical emergencies that included CPR and afterwards told my wife that the conditions of most of the course leaders (from one of the ambulance/first aid services were so bad that I would not have been surprised if one or more of them experienced an acute emergency during the Course. I am now seeing, thanks to Merkel's import of economic foreigners from certain middle east, India, and African countries, teenagers from those ethnic backgrounds who are already grossly overweight (obese).
The high schooler with the teenagers I'm referring to is located 30 m from me so I see them when I walk to the center or the City.
It's not a matter of "if politicians in bad health run for office" or not. You're an actuary. You've got the FSA credential, I've only got the ASA credential.
You should know the question is more like: "How likely is a politician in poor health to run for office, vs a politician in good health"? Obviously "poor health" is hard to define, but just as obviously the answer, in percentage terms, is somewhere between zero and one. And for people who have illnesses that make it likely they will die in the next year, I suspect the percentage is below 20%.
People like Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, Diane Feinstein, Mitch McConnell and such are high powered politicians and not representative of politicians in general. They have a lot to gain from being in office and have staff to do the real work for them.
Then there is the issue of a controversial party:
Might AfD have a difficult time finding candidates in good condition given its public image? (No idea) — do their candidates skew older or more male? More likely to be smokers? Again, no clue.
In addition, I pulled from a country-wide mortality table, but I know the different parts of Germany differ quite a bit, esp the ex-East German portion, which tends to have worse mortality.
All that said, I’m still not finding the current situation of a few dead candidates all that alarming… yet.
Let me know if we start hearing of defenestrations.
Since the fall of the Wall in '89, 36 years have passed. So, anyone who was a working adult then might be of retirement age. What was their smoking habits, alcohol consumption, and seed oil consumption (DDR produced a lot of it)?
"worked on a problem like this for my 40th birthday" - SUCH a stereotypical actuary activity! This goes so well with your posts on the ages of US Senators and Legislators.
Thanks for engaging your passion! Another important parameter not discussed is whether they took the mRNA (injurious, deadly) injection pushed by the then ruling Gov't, Big Pharma, and the medical establishment.