NYC Congestion Pricing Update: What Have Been the Effects In the First 6 Months?
Unintended Effects of Reduced Traffic Deaths?
The last time I looked at the Manhattan congestion pricing implementation was in February, thinking it might be on the way out with the new Trump administration.
I was wrong about that.
Various legal battles are going on back-and-forth between the Trump admin and the MTA re: the extra tolls over a specific area of Manhattan (which is all this is — it’s concentrated on a particular area, it’s not an extra charge for a particular time of day.) I have no interest in linking that, but the current state of play is that while the legal battles are working their way through the courts, the MTA can continue with this program for now.
What’s interesting to me, in terms of local news, is that all sorts of other things have swamped congestion pricing in interest.
I can understand that. (I am not going to post upsetting pictures. Use your imagination.)
Congestion Tracker Results: 6+ Months!
First, the comparison of NYC routes vs. Boston and Chicago:
It can be a bit difficult to see what’s happening, but the lower, blue, line is an average over the NYC routes. They started out with the lower average anyway…. but the point is the difference between the two curves, and how that changed.
(Maybe plot that?)
You can see the curves are somewhat parallel, perhaps because Boston and NYC have similar weather challenges (Chicago is on its own there).
Anyway, before the congestion pricing, the difference was about 3-4 minutes. As in, the NYC routes averaged 3-4 minutes faster.
After the congestion pricing, the affected routes were about 4-5 minutes faster. Yes, really. A whole minute saved.
Their 6-month update
I did some posts looking at particular routes, and the ones affected before seem to be similarly affected.
As they said in their own 6-month update: [I added an emphasis and will get back to that]
Mid-Year Update: Jul 25th, 2025
It is hard to believe we began navigating this congestion journey together all the way back in January! We are back to provide another update on the data, news, and other tidbits we have been tracking.
While the theme of our updates thus far has been a reservation to draw conclusions based on fresh and limited data, this is no longer the case. Over the past six months, we have had the chance to observe wide-ranging effects, including time in traffic, vehicle counts, environmental effects, mass transit usage, etc, over a considerable period of time.
Overall, the policy has mostly reached its intended effects, at least directionally. Traffic delays have decreased significantly across the board within the congestion zone, on tunnels and bridges to the zone, and even in the surrounding boroughs. While time saved in traffic depends significantly on the route one takes, it has ranged from a few minutes shaved off an evening commute to a decrease of thirty minutes or more. Official MTA data shows tens of thousands fewer vehicles are entering the zone, resulting in reduced crashes and injuries.
Environmental effects have also been apparent: honking and noise complaints have more than halved in some areas of the Congestion Zone, and air quality has reportedly improved.
While long-term effects of Congestion Pricing will continue to evolve over the months and years to come and vary significantly based on individual experience, our current data paints an encouraging picture of the policy’s effectiveness.
On that note, we will continue to monitor the data pertaining to policy impacts, and post updates here as needed. At the very least, you can expect an update here in January, when we will mark one year of Congestion Pricing.
So I will need to remember to come back either in January 2026 to see the 1-year results or when it’s struck down in court, whichever comes first.
I will get to the reduced crashes and injuries item, because that’s of direct interest to me.
But I will do a compare and contrast of the prior graphs and current.
Specific routes affected: before and after
In the prior graphs, they had a “this week” curve, but that was early on in the implementation. They no longer have that.
Holland Tunnel (route 7) — affected by congestion pricing, February, Before and After:
With additional data for the “after” curve, it’s less noisy. I kept the “tooltip” in so you could see the difference - 12 minutes.
I will pick one other route - a crosstown route: (and not grab the tooltip)
Hell’s Kitchen to Midtown East (route 2) — affected by congestion pricing:
Pretty much the same pattern. I find it interesting that there’s no difference for the morning rush. I do find there is more variation in the evening than in the morning. People find they can make more choices in the evening.
Fewer Motorist and Pedestrian Deaths Due to Congestion Pricing?
So what’s this about fewer crashes and injuries?
Well, it turns out that particular interest groups have kept an eye on results in their areas, and there were good results, and they credit the congestion pricing.
Let me link their press release and graphs:
22 Jul 2025, Transportation Alternatives: New Data from Transportation Alternatives and Families for Safe Streets Shows Vision Zero Works, Should Be Expanded; Congestion Pricing Has Made Streets Safer
Pedestrian fatalities remain high in Brooklyn, where the Adams administration has stalled and reversed several street safety projects.
In the first half of 2025, there were 90 fatalities in NYC — a difference of 19 more lives saved than the Vision Zero average.
Fatalities in the congestion relief zone are down 40% from this time last year, and not a single motorist has been killed in the zone.
Okay, a few things are going on here. They keep saying “Vision Zero” in their press release, without defining it, assuming you’ll ask them about it.
No, I won’t. It’s some program you have (I assume something about achieving zero traffic-related deaths). I’m interested in the congestion pricing angle specifically:
NEW YORK — During the first six months of 2025, traffic crashes killed 90 people, according to new analysis from Transportation Alternatives and Families for Safe Streets. This was the second-safest first six months on record, behind only 2018, and has been especially safe for those driving and traveling in cars. Nevertheless, so far in 2025, a New Yorker has been killed every two days.
This decline in fatalities can likely be at least partially explained by the onset of congestion pricing and investments in street safety infrastructure across New York City. However, in neighborhoods and boroughs where Vision Zero work has stalled, traffic crashes killed dozens of New Yorkers in the first six months of 2025 alone.
So let’s see their support for the bolded:
I will note that yeah, they’re highlighting 2018 and 2025… but 2017 is only 5 people more than 2025, and 2020 was only 3 more people. But that would muddy the message, I suppose.
I’m going to be a party pooper on this one. I clicked on “Get the data”, which gave me this:
So, instead of 10 traffic fatalities in the first half of 2024, there were 6 in the first half of 2025. Yes, that’s a 40% decrease.
However, that can just be random chance. This is what one of my actuarial friends called the “law of small numbers”.
And there can be reasons other than congestion pricing that the fatalities dropped, because look at this:
Again, there are so many problems with this graph.
We don’t have the actual numbers behind this graph — just the percentages (if you do “get the data”, all it will “get you” are the percentages. Thanks, y’all.)
I’d like to know the pre-pandemic average, and I’d like to know the year-by-year counts. GIVE ME THE DATA.
There may be a reason Brooklyn has some issues compared to other boroughs.
But I will note that Manhattan, where the congestion pricing was implemented, has the lowest decrease of all the boroughs where the fatalities decreased.
Maybe you would have helped your case, Transportation Alternatives, if you shared the underlying numbers…. or maybe you wouldn’t have.
I looked at some of the reports of fatalities that TA keeps jumping on, and some they have a huge point on concerning other safety measures they support (there’s something called daylighting, which has to do with being able to SEE WHERE YOU’RE DRIVING in an intersection, and I swear everywhere I lived other than NYC, you couldn’t park next to an intersection. IT WAS ILLEGAL.)
My point is that most of the pedestrian deaths I’m seeing have little to do with congestion pricing.
Real Result: MONEY!
$215 million in 4 months.
28 May 2025, amNY: Congestion pricing brings in $215 million for MTA so far in 2025
The controversial toll program in New York City has generated $215.7 million year to date so far in 2025. It collected $56.7 million in April alone, agency leadership said.
“We continue to be on target with our projections,” Jai Patel, co-chief financial officer for the MTA, said.
The revenue collected in April is just below the $58.4 million the agency generated in March.
So the April take was 3% less than the March take.
Let me check: April has 30 days, and March has 31…. April has 3% fewer days.
Here is the math:
56.7/58.4 - 1 = -2.9%
30/31 - 1 = -3.2%
Seriously, people. It’s like when I had to explain to somebody why there were fewer deaths in February than in March. THERE ARE USUALLY 3 FEWER DAYS.
Back to the news item:
According to the MTA, congestion pricing tolls are intended to pay for improvements to the city’s public transportation system, including updated signaling on segments of busy train lines, new electric buses, structural repairs and the Second Avenue Subway extension into East Harlem.
It’s like with the dumbass soda tax. This was really about the tax revenue.
They needed the money for the MTA. To be fair, the MTA needs a lot of money.
Gov Hochul press release, 5 July 2025: Six Months In, Governor Hochul Highlights Success of Congestion Pricing: Traffic Is Down, Business Is Up, and Critical Investments Are Being Made to Improve Transit
Revenue from congestion pricing is on track to reach the forecasted $500 million in 2025, allowing the MTA to advance $15 billion in critical capital improvements to mass transit on its subway, bus, Long Island Rail Road, and Metro-North Railroad systems.
…..
By enabling the MTA to issue $15 billion in bonds to fund projects in its 2020-2024 Capital Plan, congestion pricing is powering improvements across the MTA network. Improvement projects funded by congestion pricing include:
435 additional R211 subway cars - including 80 additional open-gangway cars
44 new, more reliable dual-mode locomotives for the Long Island Rail Road
300 new M9A cars for Metro-North and the Long Island Rail-Road
Communications Based Train Control (CBTC) signal upgrades on the A and C lines between Downtown Brooklyn and Ozone Park, allowing for more frequent and reliable service
Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) upgrades at 23 subway stations, including new elevators, reconstructed platforms, and other improvements
Additionally, funding from congestion pricing allows the MTA to move forward with the tunneling contract for Phase 2 of the Second Avenue Subway, which will be awarded in the second half of 2025.
There ya go.
It’s funding MTA projects (which is one of the legal disputes, by the way.)
Prior Posts on Congestion Pricing
5 Jun 2024: Public Finance Round-Up 2024 June 5: NY, Chicago, and Audit Delays! - this was when Hochul was trying to dodge imposing the congestion pricing right before the 2024 elections
12 Jun 2024: Hochul's Congestion Pricing Hokey Pokey: More Reactions - Hochul was successful in pushing off implementation, but nobody was fooled
12 Nov 2024: Taxing Tuesday: The Return of Trump and NYC Congestion Charges! - Trump won anyway, and Hochul was all: oh well, here comes the congestion pricing… gotta rush it in before Trump thinks of a way of cancelling it!
7 Jan 2025: Taxing Tuesday: Congestion Pricing Comes to NYC, Finally - Hochul managed to get it started before Trump was sworn in
22 Jan 2025: NYC Congestion Pricing Check-In: What Are the Effects So Far? - it’s tough to tell, because it’s really frickin cold right now, and people don’t want to even go to Manhattan during this sort of weather
19 Feb 2025: NYC Congestion Pricing, We Hardly Knew Ye — alas, I was premature.