NYC Congestion Pricing Check-In: What Are the Effects So Far?
We probably don't have the correct data to check
Let’s be real: it’s cold as hell in January up here in New York. The only people hanging out in NYC right now live here. Just yesterday morning, the temps out where I live measured -1 degrees Fahrenheit as I put out the trash. Oh yay.
8 Jan 2025, Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution: One early report on congestion pricing in NYC
That is my latest Bloomberg column, here is one bit:
The core version of the plan stipulates a $9 toll for drivers entering Manhattan below and including 60th Street. Implementation is by E-Z Pass, and the tolls can vary in complex ways. But if you don’t cross the line, you don’t pay. So residents below 60th Street are exempt, provided they stay within the zone.
And:
The data do indicate some effective immediate adjustments. Most notably, morning commutes through the major bridges and tunnels into Manhattan have eased. Presumably the tolls have discouraged some drivers whose trips were less important to them, leading to quicker travel times for those drivers willing to pay. Economists typically consider such changes to be an improvement.
Such changes, however, aren’t of much help to native New Yorkers, in particular those living inside the zone. The earliest measurements indicate that traffic within the zone has not eased notably. So far, I would say the biggest beneficiaries of the policy are the wealthier residents of New Jersey and the New York state government, which is now set to take in more revenue.
Whatever you think of those consequences — YMMV, as they say — at least there is now actual data to sift through. You can track it here, and again it is important to stress that these preliminary assessments may change with time.
Many Manhattanites supported the charges on the grounds that they wanted a quieter, cleaner, less congested center city that was more friendly to bicycles and pedestrians. Think of Copenhagen or Amsterdam, if you have ever been. What they may end up getting is a central city more friendly to their cars — and less friendly to outsiders. It remains to be seen if central Manhattan has a path to becoming truly pleasant in the Nordic sense.
I will continue to follow this issue, as new results will be coming in. Of course stiff tolls on those living inside the zone were the correct thing to do. But that is not how politics works.
17 Jan 2025, Nicole Gelinas, City Journal: How We’ll Know if New York’s Congestion Pricing Succeeds
New York’s state-run Metropolitan Transportation Authority launched its long-awaited congestion pricing program at midnight on Sunday, January 5. On the eighth day of the program, the MTA released data on its progress. As anyone who walked, drove, biked, or looked out a window in Manhattan could already tell, the $9 fee for private cars and SUVs (higher for trucks) to enter core Manhattan has significantly reduced traffic—for now. Bus riders have marveled at faster speeds, whether from New Jersey or down Fifth Avenue. Rush-hour walks were now pleasant, with previously blocked intersection crosswalks suddenly cleared for pedestrians.
This is a positive start, but it’s not the full story. We need to know how people are getting around—if they are getting around at all—without driving or riding into Midtown or downtown. Additionally, are the emptier streets safer, or are they more dangerous? As the MTA works against the clock to avoid potential interference in the program from the incoming Trump administration, it should provide crucial information as soon as it comes in.
….
The MTA also glossed over some key distinctions. Of the vehicles deterred from entering Manhattan last week, how many were passenger cars, and not trucks? Yes, most vehicles that enter each day are cars, and trucks are harder to divert—most are bringing goods to the city. But a key goal of congestion pricing was to keep some 4,600 to 6,800 trucks per day from moving through Manhattan without making deliveries, as they have been doing to avoid bridge tolls on other routes. Is that happening? If so, what’s the impact on the Cross-Bronx Expressway and other major routes parallel to Manhattan? Further, are vehicle drivers—both car and truck—switching their journeys to overnight hours, after 9 p.m., to get a 75 percent discount on the congestion fee? Spreading traffic out over more hours, not just deterring it, is another key goal of congestion pricing, so it would be useful to get some information soon.
The MTA should also offer a hint about taxi, Uber, and Lyft trips. Taxi riders entering or traveling within the congestion zone now face an additional 75 cent charge per ride, while for-hire vehicle riders pay a $1.50 fee. One potential downside of congestion pricing is that it might attract more taxi and for-hire vehicle customers—who are already accustomed to paying a convenience premium—onto the now-emptier streets, thereby replacing rather than reducing traffic. This risk is particularly relevant since Lyft has announced that it will rebate the $1.50 fee to its passengers throughout January. It would be helpful to know whether taxi and for-hire vehicle trips to or within core Manhattan have increased, decreased, or stayed the same.
It does matter what kind of vehicles are coming or, more importantly, not coming into Manhattan so much under congestion pricing.
Congestion Pricing Tracker
Here is an easy-to-use site using the publicly available data via Google maps:
https://www.congestion-pricing-tracker.com/
Information on who is behind this:
This project is run by Joshua Moshes and Benjamin Moshes, under the supervision of Brown University Professor Emily Oster.
Their method:
The Congestion Pricing Tracker was created to measure the impact of congestion pricing on vehicle travel times in New York City. To do this, we collected Google Maps traffic data for 19 routes, finding the shortest time to drive from Point A to Point B for every route. We collected data points every 15 minutes for every route, resulting in 1824 data points a day.
Most of the route data we have been collecting were for routes directly affected by congestion pricing (Routes 1-13). Route 14 measures congestion on FDR drive, which is excluded from congestion pricing. Routes 15, 17 and 19 are routes within New York City, but outside of the congestion zone, to measure the effect of congestion pricing for those commutes.
Routes 16 and 18 are control routes, running in Boston and Chicago, respectively, acting as a control. You can view the routes data was collected for in Figure 2.
So that helps show the impact of the congestion pricing in terms of how much the congestion was relieved… except… it would have been better if they had collected the data a year before (and some years before as well). And collected weather data alongside.
That’s enough of that crap, let’s look at a few specific routes.
Holland Tunnel (route 7) — affected by congestion pricing:
Interesting — a clear effect around the evening rush hour.
East Harlem to Longwood (Route 16) — outside the congestion pricing zone
Hmmm, looks like this route was negatively affected by congestion pricing in the morning rush hour. Look at that. The route can be seen below — the congestion pricing zone starts at 60th Street, recall. East Harlem is around 100th St.
But claiming that it was the congestion pricing itself causing this change would be wrong-headed.
To see why, let’s look at two bridges in lower Manhattan: the Manhattan Bridge and the Brooklyn Bridge.
Comment on Data
I am sharing the following, because this one is amusing, though not at all enlightening:
Manhattan Bridge (Route 10) — affected by congestion pricing
Let me show you the Brooklyn Bridge results; maybe you can see the problem.
Brooklyn Bridge (route 9) — affected by congestion pricing
They get the data by querying Google Maps for routes and estimated times.
For travel times like 1 or 2 minutes, Google Maps will not give results to hundredths of a minute or even tenths of a minute.
It will simply say “ETA: 2 minutes”
The problem is that Manhattan Bridge at the beginning of January does not have much traffic at all, with or without any disincentives to cross. Of course it’s only going to take about two minutes. We can’t compare anything at all for Manhattan Bridge now.
Even the Brooklyn Bridge shows the same problem: you can’t tell the effect of congestion pricing there, because you’re comparing against one of the slowest times of year for traffic against the picking up of traffic later. As it gets warmer, there will be more traffic on the bridges.
This is why it’s not fair to say the increase in traffic from East Harlem to Longwood is due to the congestion pricing going into effect. It may simply be post-holiday traffic increasing.
Ideally, we’d want data from a year before, as traffic is seasonal.
I will likely not be using this tracker much, because it’s not going to give appropriate comparisons, alas.
There may be interesting patterns to look at, but it will not necessarily tell us anything about the effectiveness of congestion pricing.
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson: Hey, We Should Try This
7 Jan 2025, Block Club Chicago: Chicago ‘Should Explore’ Congestion Tax To Reduce Traffic, Mayor Says
Mayor Brandon Johnson is backing away from his earlier support to possibly launch a city-run grocery store, but is open to exploring the possibility of bringing New York-style congestion pricing to Downtown Chicago, he said Tuesday.
During a brief interview with Block Club on Tuesday afternoon, Johnson also defended his handling of the protracted and often bitter 2025 budget process while looking ahead to what he hopes to accomplish this year — if he can find the necessary backing from an increasingly defiant City Council.
….
On Sunday, New York City began its long-awaited congestion pricing program, which charges an automatic fee to drivers traveling below 60th Street in Manhattan.
The controversial model aims to reduce traffic in Downtown Manhattan while raising funds for public transit agencies.
Would a similar program work in Chicago’s Loop? The idea has been floated before, and on Tuesday Johnson said he believes it’s something the city “should explore” — especially to collect fees on drivers who don’t live in the city.
“I think being able to have robust conversations about how we respond to congestion, and of course, how we generate revenue, particularly from individuals that take full advantage of our city resources, but don’t necessarily live here … I’m all for that conversation,” he said.
Johnson’s comments come a day after a new study found that Chicago is tied with New York City for having the second-worst traffic of any city on earth, behind only Istanbul, Turkey. The average Chicagoan spent 102 hours in traffic in 2024, according to research published by transportation analytics firm INRIX.
NBC, 9 Jan 2025: Chicago could consider congestion pricing after New York launches program
Joe Schwieterman, a transportation expert at DePaul University, says that he isn’t surprised Chicago and other cities could mull their options as they seek to ease traffic congestion and urge motorists to ditch their cars in favor of trains and buses. He does caution however that the $9 fee assessed by New York would likely not fly in Chicago.
“We are not New York,” he said. “The fees would have to be lower.”
Schwieterman also argued that Chicago’s worst congestion doesn’t occur on surface streets within the city, but instead on expressways that service the downtown corridor.
“I think the biggest congestion is on the expressways, and on that north lakefront area,” he said. “There are lots of lessons here and Chicago no doubt will be studying this very carefully.”
Archived Chicago Page on Congestion Pricing
Guess what I found as I dug around — from 2020:
Archived page from City of Chicago, on congestion pricing, from 2020
(If you try to go there now, it will give you a page not found error - I am using the Wayback Machine)
The use of ride-hailing services – such as Uber, Lyft and Via – has grown by 271 percent since 2015 and continues to steadily increase. An analysis conducted by the City of Chicago has revealed:
Half of all trips citywide begin or end in the downtown area, and nearly a third of those trips both start and end in the downtown area.
Approximately 26 miles of road space is occupied in the downtown area by TNPs during a typical evening rush period.
77 percent of downtown area trips are requested as single trips.
Anyone that has traveled in the downtown area during rush periods would agree- congestion is a serious problem plaguing Chicago. Effective January 6, 2020, Chicago’s landmark congestion policy will combat the plague of congestion, promote sustainable forms of transportation and support our essential public transit system, while making shared rides cheaper in the neighborhoods.
I’m going to guess that due to the COVID pandemic, downtown congestion became a non-problem quite rapidly in 2020.
The surcharges seem quite low to me:
It only applied to taxis and ride-sharing, so it doesn’t have much in common with the NYC plan.
I mentioned that this page existed in 2020 (when it went into effect) and doesn’t exist now. It existed 24 Nov 2024. That was the last live capture the Wayback Machine got.
It would take quite a bit to implement in Chicago. NYC already had several tolls on bridges and tunnels to enter Manhattan before they imposed congestion pricing. Most people who have to regularly enter and leave already have EZ-passes and are used to paying tolls. Is that the case in Chicago?
As noted by the transportation expert above, it may be more to the point to put tolls on the expressways coming into Chicago, not within Chicago itself.
That is, if the point is about reducing congestion.
That may not be the point.