Know Your COVID Data

Also: HUZZAH TO STU!

Mary Pat Campbell

STUMP is back and operational!

Huzzahs to STU who got it back working again. Also, I like my purty new interface for composing posts over there [not that you can see it]. Magnifique!

I will be double-posting between the substack and STUMP for a while, and will likely be going back to the very-long-posts on STUMP and summaries here on the substack. Eventually.

I may be doing some “Classic STUMP” re-posts here on the substack while I’m still doing STUMP housecleaning after Stu got the software problem fixed.

Coronavirus: Know Your Data

I have been trying to get something together re: excess mortality and COVID-19, but I’m running into some severe limitations re: available data.

I discuss some of that in the below video.

Yeah, I know the frame YouTube chose as the freezeframe is making me look more dorkish than usual. Whatever.

My point is that I am having big trouble being able using any current data to make estimates even for 2020, so I may have to fall back on the usual actuarial fallback: historical data.

One standard actuarial punchline (doesn’t really matter the set up) is “What was it last year?” — That’s equivalent to “Have you tried turning it off and then on again?” of IT Support.

Everybody has their standard go to.

Some Music for the Weekend

Just because.

While there’s breath, there’s hope. See y’all!