Coronavirus, Bad Data, and Daniel Defoe

Back to normal STUMP content: death!

I have a couple videos I did recently, which I will post in reverse chronological order.

Actuaries have standards… and COVID data are iffy

In the first, I discuss the difficulty in finding usable data in doing analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel Defoe anticipated this problem.

Links to accompany the video:

Actuarial Standards of Practice:

ASOP 23, Data Quality:

A Journal of the Plague Year, by Defoe:

On Italy's high COVID-19 case fatality rate:

This newsletter is currently STUMP

Stu is working on getting textpattern, the software I use on the blog, back to working condition. But this is a much lower priority than getting other stuff done.

So this substack newsletter is going to be it for a while.

Also, if you’d like to see how I get some rest & relaxation, check out this video [it’s a lot shorter than the one above]:

Free documentaries here for now: [Helvetica playing til March 24]

My playlists:

My MST3K list I sleep to:

My song list from despair and pain to hope... to me just enjoying music [it ends w/ my fave Ave Maria]

And I was wrong about which Patsy Cline song is on the list. It’s “I Fall to Pieces”, not “Crazy”.

Upcoming topics and announcements

As the feds have pushed off tax day til July 15, I’m putting Taxing Tuesday to sleep for 3 months, at least.

In its place, I’ll be looking at DEAAAAAAATH! Okay, and public pensions and finance, too. The old STUMP topics.

  1. I have been able to get at my old STUMP posts via google cache, and I’m going to be digging up “Classic STUMP” [yes, I know… it goes back only til 2014], looking at what has happened with public pensions before the current problems, and what may happen next.

  2. I’m giving opera a miss for this week, but if the Met takes some of my suggestions… I’ll be back for free Met Opera week 3.

  3. I will be looking at death rates and trends for baseline in the U.S., looking at various components, and then potential changes in components due to coronavirus.

I’ve got historical data, some tools from the Society of Actuaries, and more for the last one. Again, I will be marking off posts indicating whether the dreaded mortality shows up.

Never worry, I’ll never give you surprise death, not even with opera.

See you soon!